Prelude to an Attack on IranBy Robert Baer08/19/07 "Time" -- -
Reports that the Bush Administration will put Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the terrorism list can be read in one of two ways: it's either more bluster or, ominously, a wind-up for a strike on Iran. Officials I talk to in Washington vote for a hit on the IRGC, maybe within the next six months. And they think that as long as we have bombers and missiles in the air, we will hit Iran's nuclear facilities. An awe and shock campaign, lite, if you will. But frankly they're guessing; after Iraq the White House trusts no one, especially the bureaucracy. As with Saddam and his imagined WMD, the Administration's case against the IRGC is circumstantial. The U.S. military suspects but cannot prove that the IRGC is the main supplier of sophisticated improvised explosive devices to insurgents killing our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. The most sophisticated version, explosive formed projectiles or shape charges, are capable of penetrating the armor of an Abrams tank, disabling the tank and killing the crew. A former CIA explosives expert who still works in Iraq told me: "The Iranians are making them. End of story." His argument is only a state is capable of manufacturing the EFP's, which involves a complicated annealing process. Incidentally, he also is convinced the IRGC is helping Iraqi Shia militias sight in their mortars on the Green Zone. "The way they're dropping them in, in neat grids, tells me all I need to know that the Shia are getting help. And there's no doubt it's Iranian, the IRGC's," he said. A second part of the Administration's case against the IRGC is that the IRGC has had a long, established history of killing Americans, starting with the attack on the Marines in Beirut in 1983. And that's not to mention it was the IRGC that backed Hizballah in its thirty-four day war against Israel last year. The feeling in the Administration is that we should have taken care of the IRGC a long, long time ago. Strengthening the Administration's case for a strike on Iran, there's a belief among neo-cons that the IRGC is the one obstacle to democratic and a friendly Iran. They believe that if we were to get rid of the IRGC, the clerics would fall, and our thirty-years war with Iran over. It's another neo-con delusion, but still it informs White House thinking. And what do we do if just the opposite happens — a strike on Iran unifies Iranians behind the regime? An Administration official told me it's not even a consideration. "IRGC IED's are a casus belli for this administration. There will be an attack on Iran." — Robert Baer, a former CIA field officer assigned to the Middle East, is TIME.com's intelligence columnist and the author of See No Evil and, most recently, the novel Blow the House Down
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1654188,00.html
There are far too many commentators advising war on Iran.Neocons are pleading mea culpas for the ignorance shown in attacking Iraq.Surely such ignorant advisors would learn from their mistakes.
Alas, such is not the case.The former USSR had a time out when they went BROKE. Maybe it is time for America to get its priorities in line before going on another adventure.
While reparations are in order for the chaos created in Iraq, the American people will no doubt, continue to shop for bargains.
The debt is $850 billion and climbing.
America is going for broke.All troops should get out of Afghanistan and Iraq.
All countries that were committed to giving foreign aid to these countries should do so.Bush and Cheney,and other neocons are fools of the worse kind as they never learn from their mistakes.Derek 08.19.07 - 1:21 pm #
"The Iranians are making them. End of story." - No, not end of story.Says who and on what evidence?"The way they're dropping them in, in neat grids, tells me all I need to know that the Shia are getting help." - So we just believe what you believe, Mr CIA spokesman, hey? And the evidence?"And there's no doubt it's Iranian, the IRGC's,"- Oh, there's plenty of doubt but it won't voiced anywhere in mainstream media, from Fox News to the BBC, as well all these 'official spokesmen' are banking on. And the evidence?"The feeling in the Administration is that we should have taken care of the IRGC a long, long time ago". - Yes, we know all about Washington's deluded 'feelings'; but the evidence?"IRGC IED's are a casus belli for this administration. There will be an attack on Iran."- Looks like it, because the citizens of the USA are indifferent and apparently quite unwilling to or incapable of questioning their media's propaganda and their authorities' claims.It's left to rest of us to challenge every lie and soundbite attributed to 'official sources' in newspapers like the NYT and in TV news broadcasts, from CNN and BBC across the board to all the local stations.blizzard 08.19.07 - 1:56 pm #
If the economy is tottering right now,and the problems with junk mortgages have JUST started (there will be another whammy starting this Otober),what will happen if the U.S attacks Iran ,spreading panic in European and Asian markets,with all the traders dumping U.S. debt?.Are our Representatives going to allow it?.Are we as citizens going to allow it without protesting?.Gustavo Caldas 08.19.07 - 2:30 pm #
An astute observer I know well suggests that if H. Clinton is elected in 2008, there will be an attack on Iran, but not if R. Guliani wins the election. It would seem that the neocons are in for the longer run, and it won' matter who becomes president in 2009. They will continue pursuing their goals.Prospero 08.19.07 - 2:39 pm #
Check my blog and you will see I came up with the idea of Prelude to an Attack before this article was published. For real !andrew Homepage 08.19.07 - 3:07 pm #
http://andrewbnoselli.blogspot.comandrew Homepage 08.19.07 - 3:08 pm #
I feel it is neccessary to rebut the careless and unatributed comments of the 'CIA weapons expert' quoted. Firstly, mortaring is not rocket science. You start with a map, then overlay this map with a grid covering the target area(the Green Zone). Next,reproduce and distribute the map.
Set up observation points (to call in firing adjustments) and a communications net- cell phones would do. Now, canvas your area of operations for good firing points that your mortar crews can use. Write a Firing Plan for every point of fire, incorporating the firing tables for type of ammo used, meteorlogical adjustments, and of course distance to the various targets to be serviced. Gps is ideal for this, but a talented hand with navigational dividers can do the job. Lay out marks (spray paint or stakes) so the lads can get their guns laid quickly,and have your operations officer write out an operational plan.
Happy mortaring!Now, tell me that the thousands of professional soldiers in the former Iraqi army couldn't figure this out? they have been fighting over there since 1980! Iranian Revolutionary Guard my white ass!!Jim Norman 08.19.07 - 4:00 pm #
" A former CIA explosives expert who still works in Iraq told me"Who's he working for? What company? What government?hareli 08.19.07 - 4:35 pm #
Good for you, blizzard 08.19.07 - 1:56 pm.Because I dont buy the shit from this guy, either.hareli 08.19.07 - 4:36 pm #
"A second part of the Administration's case against the IRGC is that the IRGC has had a long, established history of killing Americans, starting with the attack on the Marines in Beirut in 1983."Oh yeah? Then why did Victor Ostrovsky, former Mossad agent, write in the early 90s that the Mossad were involved? [Google it. It's been out for years.] And Israel was so upset about the publication that it sought an a priori injunction against the book from the US Supreme Court.hareli 08.19.07 - 4:40 pm #
As far as the mysterious 'EFPs' these are are simply our old friend the platter charge. I won't tell you how to make one, but will list the neccessary tools and materials. Raw materials are steel pipe- 6" is a good size, and steel plate the same thickness as the pipe. A castable explosive (Comp B from a dud US bomb) and pure copper sheet complete the materials list.You need a welder, a band saw and a lathe to make the casing. Every machine shop and even many home shops have these tools.To fill the casing it's a thermometer and a double boiler. Real hi tech. Only a government could do this, right?The fragment is a little harder.You could make it various ways, but the best would be to use a copper sheet and form it with a press. This would require annealing, and is not something the average Hadjji could easily figure out. Engineering the annealment process is the only hard part though- once this was accomplished the quite simple instructions could be printed on a slip of paper.So- it's not a government that's required here- just a metalurgist, a weapons engineer and Bubbas' machine shop.Jim Norman 08.19.07 - 4:50 pm #
interesting - But I have to say I am so tired of the - US to invade Iran - senario - I mean its like every week since 2003 many articles come out about the potential attack by the US that now I feel burnt out on the whole thing - could this be the key as to why so much chicken little over the years?just a thoughtunity 08.19.07 - 5:00 pm #
life , freedom , democracy ?
Sunday, August 19, 2007
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